Public Policy Polling (7/9-10, likely voters):
Mark Udall (D): 47
Bob Schaffer (R): 38
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.0%)
While most polls in 2007 and the early part of this year showed this one to be a close race, this is now the fourth poll in a row showing Udall with a lead of 9 or 10 points. After being hit with his ties to Abramoff and a few other campaign trail gaffes, Schaffer seems like he’s beginning to unravel a bit. The DSCC would clearly love to kill his candidacy in the crib, but it remains to be seen whether he can regain his footing and put some heat on Udall for a change.
Bonus findings: In the presidential race, Obama leads McCain by 47-43. In a hypothetical 2010 match-up with former Denver Broncos star John Elway, Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar leads by 44-37. Against former Gov. Bill Owens, the contest is much closer: 44-41 for Salazar.
It would be nice if this turned out to be a blowout the way Virginia and New Mexico appear almost certain to be.
I doubt John Elway will ever run for public office. I find it strange that Owens didn’t consider running for this Senate seat. He would’ve had a much better chance at this one than waiting until 2010 to run against a reasonably well-liked incumbent.
Even in what is almost surely going to be a big Democratic year, I still think he’d make this more competitive against Udall than Bob Schaffer.
Off topic, but who thinks Jesse Ventura is going to pull the trigger tonight on “Larry King Live”?
In the Dem primary, I can’t see Salazar losing in 2010, even against Owens.
Udall will win by a good 10 points. The good news in a bunch of polls showing him ahead by around 9 points is that now the DSCC won’t have to spend anymore money on this race, and can use that money on other races such as Mississippi-B, Alaska, MN, Oregon, or what ever. Udall has a huge money advantage over Bob S. and won’t need a dime.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
In a head to head race against Coleman:
Franken (D)- 44
Coleman (R)- 42
In a 3-way race with Ventura:
Coleman (R) – 36
Franken (D) – 34
Ventura (I) – 22
And still think that numerically this race will be realtively close. I don’t expect anything more than a 6-8 point win. But I’ve never for a moment believed Schaffer was going to win, the guy is a total dunse and scandal after scandal is being released about him.
The Colorado Independent posted a compendium of Bob Schaffer’s missteps.
Mind you we skipped the mini-scandals:
– rescinding his initial campaign announcement after realizing that both he hadn’t filed his FEC candidacy paperwork yet and that he risked potential embarrassment in a poor second quarter fundraising cycle with just six weeks until the reporting deadline.
– conflict of interest charges are raised when it is learned that Schaffer, then a Colorado Board of Education member, accepted campaign contributions from a wealthy Ohio charter school operator whose contract with the Denver Public Schools was on the skids. Schaffer cast the deciding vote to extend the contract over the objections of the local school board.
– Colorado GOP Chair Dick Wadhams (ex-of Sen. George Allen’s campaign) scares off potential primary challengers and then promptly announces that he will manage the Schaffer campaign.